Nigeria is bracing for nationwide protests this week over economic hardship.
Politicians and the army have warned people against taking to the streets, but organisers say government failings have left them little choice.
Both sides have made comparisons with recent protests in Kenya that forced the government to withdraw new taxes, but it is not clear what shape the rallies could take in Nigeria.
With demonstrations set to start on Thursday, AFP looks at how things stand.
What’s the economic backdrop?
Nigeria is suffering its worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation following reforms President Bola Ahmed Tinubu brought in after coming to power last year.
He ended a fuel subsidy and currency controls, leading to a tripling of petrol prices and a spike in inflation.
The US-based World Bank and International Monetary Fund said the measures were needed to revive Nigeria’s economy and the government has appealed for patience.
But the reforms have hit Nigerians hard. Food inflation has topped 40 percent and hunger is spreading, especially in the north.
Kenya-style unrest?
Some analysts believe rallies in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, could take on Kenya-style momentum, pointing to similar grievances and the role of young people promoting protests online.
Nigerian risk consultancy SBM said a heavy-handed approach from the authorities risked “a confrontation that may spiral beyond anyone’s control.”
But many experts think Nigeria’s situation is different and less likely to bring out large crowds, pointing to the limited unrest Tinubu’s reforms have seen so far and fears following past crackdowns.
Who is behind the protests?
The authorities have directed warnings against protesting at young people, who have built support on social media under the hashtag “EndBadGovernanceinNigeria”.
What has happened in the past?
Nigeria’s last major protest movement ended in a crackdown by security forces.
The 2020 #EndSARS rallies began over abuses by the SARS anti-robbery police squad and spiralled into the largest anti-government demonstrations in Nigeria’s modern history.
Amnesty International said soldiers shot at least 10 people dead at the Lekki toll gate in Lagos. The government and the army deny responsibility.
In 2012, the military also clamped down on “Occupy Nigeria” protests over former president Goodluck Jonathan’s bid to remove fuel subsidies.
AFP