The CIA has assessed that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, is under growing pressure from his military commanders to agree to a ceasefire with Israel, CIA Director Bill Burns revealed at a closed-door conference on Saturday, according to an attendee.
Sinwar, who played a key role in orchestrating the October 7 massacre in Israel, is reportedly not “concerned with his mortality” but is facing mounting blame for the widespread suffering in Gaza, Burns said at the event. US intelligence officials believe Sinwar is hiding in tunnels beneath his birthplace, Khan Younis in Gaza, and is a crucial decision-maker for Hamas regarding a potential ceasefire.
Burns, who has been actively involved in negotiations as the Biden administration’s primary mediator, stressed the importance for both the Israeli government and Hamas to seize this opportunity to reach a ceasefire, now more than nine months into the conflict. The pressure on Sinwar from within Hamas has intensified over the past two weeks, with senior commanders growing weary of the ongoing conflict, Burns noted.
Speaking at the Allen & Company retreat in Sun Valley, Idaho, Burns emphasized the urgent need for a ceasefire, highlighting a recent framework deal proposed by President Joe Biden at the end of May. This framework serves as the basis for ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the fighting.
Burns had just returned from the Middle East, where he continued discussions with mediators from Qatar and Egypt and met with Israel’s foreign intelligence head to further the ceasefire and hostage deal talks. He mentioned a “fragile possibility” for a ceasefire, noting that the chances are higher than before, but acknowledged that the final stages of negotiations are always challenging.
The pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also significant, with domestic demands for the return of hostages held in Gaza. Thousands of Israeli protesters regularly demonstrate in Tel Aviv, urging the government to prioritize the hostages’ return over the military campaign.
“There are still gaps to close, but we’re making progress, the trend is positive,” Biden said on Thursday. “I’m determined to get this deal done and bring an end to this war, which should end now.”
Israel’s campaign in Gaza has resulted in over 38,000 Palestinian deaths, with thousands missing and hundreds of thousands facing dire conditions, according to aid organizations and the Gaza Ministry of Health.
Negotiations are complicated by the challenges of communication with Sinwar, as Israel continues to target Hamas leaders. Of the top three Hamas leaders in Gaza, Israel has reportedly killed one, Marwan Issa. Mohammed Deif, the military chief, was targeted in a recent bombing, but it remains unclear if he was successfully hit.
US officials believe Sinwar no longer desires to rule Gaza. Both Israel and Hamas have agreed to an “interim governance” plan for Gaza, with neither side in control. Qatar has also pressured Hamas by threatening to expel its political leadership if they do not agree to the plan.
In recent communications, senior Hamas leaders have urged acceptance of Biden’s ceasefire proposal, citing heavy losses and severe conditions in Gaza. Hamas has recently dropped its demand for assurances of a permanent ceasefire, which had been a sticking point in negotiations.
Netanyahu has insisted that any deal must allow Israel to resume military operations until its objectives are met. A pause in the fighting could lead to the release of some Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, with the framework proposing that permanent ceasefire negotiations continue during this pause.
At a news conference, Netanyahu stated he would not deviate from Biden’s framework, despite Hamas requesting 29 changes to the proposal, which he refused to accept. There are still “tough issues to resolve,” according to sources familiar with the talks, indicating that the negotiations have a long way to go.
cnn